Home > System Identification > 14th IFAC Symposium on System Identification, 2006 > A BayesianߞDecision theoretic approach to model error modeling
A BayesianߞDecision theoretic approach to model error modeling
System Identification, Volume # 14 | Part# 1
Location: , Australia
National Organizing Committee Chair: Brett Ninness,
Håkan Hjalmarsson
International Program Committee Chair: Iven Mareels
Conference Editor: Brett Ninness,
Håkan Hjalmarsson
Authors
R. McVinish; J. H. Braslavsky; K. Mengersen
Identifier
10.3182/20060329-3-AU-2901.00162
Index Terms
transfer functions,decision theory,non-parametric identification,Monte Carlo calculation,loss minimization
Abstract
This paper takes a Bayesian-decision theoretic approach to transfer function estimation, nominal model estimation, and quantification of the resulting model error. Consistency of the nonparametric estimate of the transfer function is proved together with a rate of convergence. The required quantities can be computed routinely using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed methodology has connections with set membership identification which has been extensively studied for this problem.
References
[1] Akçay, H., H. Hjalmarsson and L. Ljung (1996). On
the choice of norms in system identification.
IEEE Trans. on Automatic Control 41, 1367-
1372.
[2] Berger, J.O. (1985). Statistical Decision Theory and
Bayesian Analysis, 2nd Ed., Springer-Verlag.
New York.
[3] Brooks, S. P., P. Guidici and G. O. Roberts (2003).
Efficient construction of reversible jump Markov
chain Monte Carlo proposal distributions. J. R.
Statist. Soc. B. 65, 3-55.
[4] Garulli, A., A. Vicino and G. Zappa (2000). Conditional
central algorithms for worst case set-membership
identification and filtering. IEEE.
Trans. on Automatic Control 45, 14-23.
[5] Ghosal, S. and A. W. van der Vaart (2005). Convergence
rates of posterior distributions for non iid
observations. Ann. Statist. (accepted).
[6] Ghosh, J. K. and R. V. Ramamoorthi (2003). Bayesian
nonparametrics. Springer. New York.
[7] Green, P. (1995). Reversible jump MCMC computation
and Bayesian model determination.
Biometrika 82, 711-732.
[8] Hildebrand, R. and M. Gevers (2003). Identification
for control: optimal input design with respect to
a worst-case ν-gap cost function. SIAM J. Control
Optim. 41, 1586-1608.
[9] Hjalmarsson, H. (2005). From experiment design to
closed-loop control. Automatica 41, 393-438.
[10] Juloski, A. L., S. Weiland and W. P. Heemels (2004).
A Bayesian approach to identification of hybrid
systems. In: Proceedings of the 43rd IEEE Conference
on Decision and Control. Atlantis, Paradise
Island, Bahamas. pp. 13-19.
[11] Milanese, M. and A. Vicino (1991). Optimal estimation
theory for dynamic systems with set membership
uncertainty: An overview. Automatica
27, 997-1009.
[12] Muller, P. and F. A. Quintana (2004). Nonparametric
Bayesian data analysis. Statistical Science
19, 95-110.
[13] Ninness, B., S. Henriksen and T. Brinsmead (2002).
System identification via a computational
Bayesian approach. In: Proceedings of the 41st
IEEE Conference on Decision and Control. Las
Vegas, Nevada, USA. pp. 1820-1825.
[14] Reinelt, W., A. Garulli and L. Ljung (2002). Comparing
different approaches to model error modeling
in robust identification. Automatica 38, 787-803.
[15] Robert, C. P. and G. Casella (2004). Monte Carlo statistical
methods. Springer. New York.
[16] Šmídl, V., A. Quinn, M. Kárny and T. V. Guy (2005).
Robust estimation of autoregressive processes using
a mixture-based filter-bank. Systems & Control
Letters 54, 315-323.
